The game is one the line and you’ve got a guy taking a lead from first base. Who do you want in that position if choosing from the player roster of 1993 Finest?
Metric One: Career Totals
There’s no more simple way to base thievery than to look at who swiped the most over a career. Henderson is the clear winner with a tally nearly equal to that of second and third place added together. Not only is he a full Ozzie Smith ahead of Tim Raines, he is almost 500 ahead of the previous MLB all-time record holder.
| Player | Stolen Bases |
|---|---|
| Rickey Henderson | 1,406 |
| Tim Raines | 808 |
| Kenny Lofton | 622 |
| Otis Nixon | 620 |
| Ozzie Smith | 580 |
| Brett Butler | 558 |
| Barry Bonds | 514 |
| Paul Molitor | 504 |
| Roberto Alomar | 474 |
| Eric Young | 465 |
Metric Two: Average Stolen Bases per 162 Games
Rickey Henderson had an extensive career, playing in 25 seasons. This undoubtedly helped pad his career totals and potentially masking the capabilities of other similar players. To account for this, I calculated average stolen bases per game played and converted the result into a 162 game rate to simulate a full season.
| Player | SB per 162 Games |
|---|---|
| Rickey Henderson | 74 |
| Otis Nixon | 59 |
| Tim Raines | 52 |
| Kenny Lofton | 48 |
| Deion Sanders | 47 |
| Delino DeShields | 46 |
| Eric Young | 44 |
| Alex Cole | 42 |
| Brett Butler | 41 |
| Chuck Knoblauch | 40 |
Henderson still dominates the pack. Some new names join the list, such as Deion Sanders and Delino DeShields. Otis Nixon appeared on both this list and the previous one. His production is much more apparent in the 162-game view and is the only one even close to Henderson. I have to give Nixon credit, as he stole almost every single base after the age of 30.
Metric Three: Peak Season Stolen Bases
What about peak performance? After all, someone who just accumulates stolen bases over a long career isn’t as exciting as someone who plunders the base paths like an ancient Viking.
***Looks at table below***
This just isn’t fair.
| Player | Season | Stolen Bases |
| Rickey Henderson | 1982 | 130 |
| Rickey Henderson | 1983 | 108 |
| Rickey Henderson | 1980 | 100 |
| Rickey Henderson | 1988 | 93 |
| Tim Raines | 1983 | 90 |
| Rickey Henderson | 1986 | 87 |
| (TIE) Rickey Henderson / Eric Davis | 1985 / 1986 | 80 |
| (TIE) Marquis Grissom / Tim Raines | 1992 / 1982 | 78 |
| Rickey Henderson | 1989 | 77 |
Metric Four: Success Rate
How about a more nuanced view? Getting thrown out while attempting to steal a base hurts a team. Growing acceptance of this has led to fewer attempts in recent years. Success rates of 75% or more are generally needed to move the run-scoring needle in a positive direction, a rate that few runners actually achieve. So which players consistently helped their team by taking another base?
| Player | Stolen Bases | Caught Stealing | Success Rate % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Raines | 808 | 146 | 84.7% |
| Eric Davis | 349 | 66 | 84.1% |
| Darren Daulton | 50 | 10 | 83.3% |
| Barry Larkin | 379 | 77 | 83.1% |
| Rickey Henderson | 1,406 | 335 | 80.8% |
| Roberto Alomar | 474 | 114 | 80.6% |
| Andy Van Slyke | 245 | 59 | 80.6% |
| Lenny Dykstra | 285 | 72 | 79.8% |
| Ozzie Smith | 580 | 148 | 79.7% |
| Kenny Lofton | 622 | 160 | 79.5% |
A few new names appear through this lens. Phillies catcher Darren Daulton makes a surprise visit to the list. Andy Van Slyke and Lenny Dykstra, a pair that really didn’t like each other, appear to have put together nearly identical numbers.
Parting Thoughts
It’s pretty apparent that Rickey Henderson was the best base thief in the set, an unsurprising outcome. While it is difficult to argue for anyone else as the greatest in such a situation, that doesn’t shut down the conversation. To keep from rehashing the same old stats over and over again it is useful to ask slightly different questions. Instead of who is the best base stealer, ask who is the fifth best. You will get very different answers and the responses can tell a great deal about which lens a fan views the game.
Who’s the 5th best? Ozzie Smith? Deion Sanders? Rickey Henderson (again)?
Post Script: Who was the worst baserunner in the set? Jay Buhner. He took 6 bases in 30 lifetime attempts.
